6.12.05

Cabinet Reshuffling: Some Facts and Opinions

This rather long piece of writing concludes my previous posts on the issue (see Farewell to the Ministers and Selamat Tinggal. After waiting for about three months, President SBY finally announced his cabinet reshuffling. The announcement was made yesterday (Monday, Dec.5) at Gedung Negara in Yogyakarta and aired live through TVRI state television station. I was glad to be quite accurate in predicting that Jusuf Anwar and Andung would lose their posts.

The Reshuffle

The reshuffling removed three ministers of their position, and rotated three others. It introduced three "new" names: Boediono, a nonpartisan; Paskah Suzetta, a veteran politician from the Golongan Karya party; and Erman Soeparno, a deputy-treasurer with PKB. The replacement and rotation can be summed up as follows:

1. Ir Aburizal Bakrie, former Economic Affairs Coordinating Minister now People`s Welfare Coordinating Minister replacing Alwi Shihab;

2. Dr Budiono, Economic Affairs Coordinating Minister replacing Aburizal Bakrie.

3. Dr Sri Mulyani Indrawati, former state minister for national development planning, now Finance Minister replacing Yusuf Anwar;

4. Fahmi Idris, former Manpower and Transmigration minister, now Industry Minister replacing Andung Nitimihardja.

5. Ir Paskah Suzetta, state minister for national development planning/head of the national development planning agency (Bappenas).

Up Close and Impersonal…

As for the economic team, a seasoned technocrat Budiono replaces Aburizal Bakrie as the coordinating minister for the economy. Aburizal, however, will retain the coordinating minister position being named the Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare replacing Alwi Shihab.

Alwi Shihab is now made SBY's advisor and special envoy for cooperation with Middle East countries as well as the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) and the Islamic Development Bank (ADB).

Former State Minister of Development Planning and chairwoman of the National Development Planning Board (Bappenas) Sri Mulyani is now Minister of Finance, replacing Jusuf Anwar. Sri Mulyani's former position is occupied by a Golkar Party politician, Paskah Suzetta, currently chairman of the Commission XI for Finance Affairs at DPR (the House of Representatives). Jusuf Anwar is said to be named as ambassador to "an important country," which remains to be announced.

Minister of Manpower and Transmigration Fahmi Idris replaces Andung Nitimihardja as Minister of Industry. It is not clear as to Andung's new position. Fahmi's former position as Minister of Manpower and Transmigration is filled in by Erman Soeparno from the National Awakening Party (PKB). Currently he is deputy chairman of House Comission V for Communication and Infrastructure.

All these new ministers will be sworn in on Wednesday.

Profiles

Boediono, the only name revealed by the President to join the economic team; a doctor of economics from Wharton School University of Pennsylvania, USA (1979); obtained his master degree in Economics from Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. Born in Blitar on 25 Februari 1943. Minister of Bappenas during Presidency of BJ Habibie; Minister of Finance under President Megawati, a highly successful minister. Recent issue of the Far Eastern Economic Reviews dubbed him as one of the four people who have changed Indonesia. Was highly internationally acclaimed as a very successful in maintaing Indonesia's economic stability through the transition era.


Paskah Suzettta, his last position was Chair of Commission XI on Finance, national Development Planning, Banking and Non-Bank Financial Institutions (Chairman of Comission XI). Affiliated with Golkar, he was born in Bandung, West Java, on 6 April 1953.

Education and Career:

1994 : Graduate, National Resilience Institute (Lemhanas)
1990 : Degree from the Political & Social Science Faculty, Padjajaran University (Unpad), Bandung
2005-present : Deputy Treasurer, Golkar
2004-present : Chair, DPR Commission XI, (Finance, National Development Planning, Banking and Non-bank Financial Institutions)
1999-2004 : Deputy Chair, DPR Commission IX (Finance and Banking);
: Member, Special Committee investigating case of Bank Bali;
: Member, Special Committee for amending Bank Indonesia Law
1997-1999 : Member, DPR Commission VIII (Energy and Natural Resources)
1992-1997 : Deputy Chair, DPR Commission IV (Transportation & Infrastructure)
1998-2003 : Chair, Indonesian Chamber of Commerce (Kadin), West Java branch.

Business : 1993-1998 head of Regional head of (Real Estate Indonesia), West Java; 1994-2004, head of advisory board, Indonesian Chamber of Commerce.

Some critics mentioned that Paskah, a veteran parliamentarian, though experienced in finance by serving as deputy chair of DPR's Commission IX from 1999 to 2004, is far from liberal with regard to views on economics. He was said to have adamantly opposed the independence of Bank Indonesia and have favored Indonesia's withdrawal from the IMF program. He has been viewed as one resisting privatization, especially strategic sales involving foreign buyers. I'd say as long as he remains open minded, he can play an important role in keeping the checks and balances, e.g. keep our conscience against too government-pro economists or "external" interests.

Erman Soeparno, born in Purworejo, on 20 March 1950. Master degree from Newport University, California USA; former President Director of PT PP Taisei Indonesia Construction; former member of the Parliament from the Kebangkitan Bangsa faction (1999-2004) of which he became leader of the faction; former Deputy Leader of Commission V of the DPR; closely linked to Head of the PKB Board Abdurrahman Wahid and PKB Leader Muhaimin Iskandar.

Opinions

Some economists (e.g. Chatib Basri of UI) said that there would not be any significant change in economic policies. Major issues would remain the same: creation of macro stability, actions to contain inflation and solution to rising unemployment. Others (e.g. Aviliani of INDEF) were of the view that the President was merely playing safe. His decision would not impact much, especially to the real sectors.

Various comments from the business circle have no doubt also arisen following the presence of three new ministers in the cabinet. Generally speaking, business and industrial players welcomed the reshuffling, particularly on the economic team, although it had not really represented the interest of the real sectors.

Yet others viewed that the appointment of Paskah Suzetta and Erman Suparno was more a political compromise than astute strategic thinking. Indra J. Piliang, researcher of Political and Social Changes with CSIS, was among those sharing this view. Political compromises like this, said Coordinator of the Human Rights Working Group (HRWG) Rafendy Djamin, tended to weaken the effort. He argued that other as serious problems, such as legal matters, remain untouched by the reshuffling.

Still, some commented that SBY had applied political accomodation throughout this limited reshuffling. SBY had accomodated Golkar by offering one additional ministerial portfolio (now there are three ministers from Golkar) while at the same time he tried to take PKB by the hand by recruiting Erman. A political observer from Universitas Indonesia (UI), Maswadi Rauf, noted that this strategy of the president was quite understandable to strengthen its political support.

Of the three new ministers, Erman Suparno, the new minister of Manpower and Transmigration was the one received with skepticism. Relatively unknown, he has been regarded as an "alien" by the secretariat General of the Association of Workers Indrayana, and by General Charman of Front of Indonesian Laborer's Struggle (FNPBI) Dita Indahsari. Understandably, Erman was deputy chariman of Commission V at the parliament, which deals with issues of transportation, housing and public works.

Deputy Chairman of Parliament Zaenal Maarif said that the reshuffle has been met with positive sentiment at the House.

Some foreign investors said they tended to focus on what the new ministers would do next. They also hoped that the new team could work together in addressing the complex situation facing Indonesia's economy. They hoped that the reshuffling could be a strong basis for changes and embetterment in Indonesia's economy. They also hoped that the new team would be able to lessen the impact of fuel price hikes and the destabilized rupiah.

Economic observer and also Parliament member Drajad Wibowo said that the economic policy would tend to be conservative with the entrance of Boediono as coordinating minister and Sri Mulyani as finance minister. Although believing the two made a good combination, he said the problem Indonesia faces calls for revitalization in industrial and agricultural sectors. These are precisely the areas that the two bigwicks lack of experience. As regards the new positions of Paskah Suzetta and Fahmi Idriss, he was of the opinion that they were just in the right positions.

Meanwhile, a member of Indonesia's Senate (DPD) from Jakarta, Sarwono Kusumaatmaja, said that the reshuffling proved that the President SBY had erred at the beginning of his presidency. In his opinion, the President should be firm in appointing his minsiters. This reshuffling would only be good with strong leadership from him.

(Major sources: Kompas, Bisnis Indonesia, Media Indonesia, Neraca, and Koran Tempo issued on Dec. 5 2005)