27.9.05

Blogging Axioms and Rules in but 1 Post

I honestly don't know much about Seth Godin, but I think he has something to say. I got the link to his latest ebook on blogging from Enda Nasution's. Click here should you want to grab the free PDF file. To busy fellows who want to get the gist of it, well I hope what follows is good enough:

Three axioms about the blogosphere (Seth calls them "truths")

Clutter: The amount of noise we're living with is exploding and it is changing everything. When you apply for a job, so do a thousand other people. No one cares about you. Almost no one even knows you exist.

Quality: Despite the so kalled the decline of western civilization, more stuff is better and cheaper than it was. As a result, we've become astonishingly picky about what we buy, watch and read. When it's something we care about, we go to enormous lengths to find the best.

(Un)Selfishness: Bloggers may be selfless, but blog readers are selfish. The readers are strict. They have very little choice because they have have as little time when there's a whale to read. A tool like RSS can make a big difference for bloggers to get heard.

On some blogging rules (He dubs them "laws)

Blogging calls for credibility. It's not who you are, it's what you say. Besides, on the Internet, everybody knows you're just a dog. But then again, it doesn't matter what you say, it matters who you are.

Better blog WITH and FOR your audience, not AT or TO it. Because the audience isn't yours. It belongs to itself and it has as much license as you do. Talk about the dramatically changing relationship between writers and readers.

Most great blogs have these components: 1. Candor; 2. Urgency; 3. Timeliness; 4. Pithiness; 5. Controversy; (6. Utility).

Blogs are like movies, working best over time. One frame of a movie isn't enough and one post on a blog isn't enough to make a huge difference.

Small is the new big only when the person running the small thinks big. Bloggers, don't wait! Get small. Think big!

26.9.05

Polemik yang Harus Segera Berakhir

Polemik tentang perlu tidaknya pemerintah mengurangi subsidi masih berlanjut. Jumat minggu lalu (23/9), Pemerintah lewat Jusuf Kalla bertekad menaikkan harga minyak sambil secara paralel akan memberi santunan kepada kaum miskin untuk menekan ekses jangka pendeknya. Persentase kenaikan tetap belum diumumkan. Ribuan orang dari berbagai lapisan masyarakat turun ke jalan untuk memprotes hasil keputusan tersebut. Bahkan jutaan penduduk Indonesia terbagi dua dalam pandangan mereka terhadap perlu tidaknya kenaikan harga BBM untuk kedua kalinya tahun ini. Pejabat atau mantan pejabat pemerintah, anggota atau mantan anggota parlemen serta TNI terus bersilang pendapat. Sebagian setuju, sebagian menolak. Persoalan fundamental yang selama ini tampaknya cukup membingungkan dan menimbulkan perbedaan pandangan masyarakat.

Debat semacam ini harus diakhiri, sebab soal mendasarnya memang bukan itu. Menyubsidi BBM adalah ide yang sungguh amat buruk! Silakan sediakan waktu untuk menyimak tulisan jernih dan lugas saudara Priyadi mengenai hal ini. Dua posting dari blogger ini merupakan argumentasi terbaik tentang polemik perlu tidaknya penghapusan BBM, dan saya senang bisa mendapatkan tulisan dengan kualitas yang cukup tinggi. Priyadi menekankan bahwa cara terbaik untuk kemajuan Indonesia adalah dengan tidak menyubsidi BBM. Beberapa kekeliruan berpikir terkait isu sensitif ini berhasil ia soroti dan urai dengan singkat namun tetap jelas. Priyadi mencoba meyakinkan, bahwa soal mendasarnya bukan tentang perlu tidaknya subsidi BBM dihapuskan (the why), melainkan menyangkut kapan waktu yang tepat dan bagaimana caranya--the when dan the how. Mengenai isu ini, kita sudah memasuki wilayah mikro yang memerlukan kajian mendalam, khususnya oleh dan bagi mereka yang terlibat langsung dalam pengambilan keputusan.

Sebaiknya pemerintah segera mengumumkan berapa persentase kenaikan untuk bulan depan. Perlu pula diarusutamakan bahwa isu tentang BBM bukanlah isu kabinet atau pemerintahan semata, melainkan isu nasional. Oleh karena itu harus ada kesepakatan atau kebijakan nasional yang jelas. Kebijakan penghapusan subsidi energi harus dituntaskan sesegera mungkin dengan sequincing yang jelas. Jadi tidak penting, siapa kelak yang akan menjabat pemerintahan, subsidi energi harus dihapuskan.

25.9.05

Trying to blog with Writely (beta ver...

Trying to blog with Writely (beta version)

23.9.05

The Pandemic of Our Time?

We should worry a bit. Panic can wait. A reading about the avian influenza in today's National Geographic (Indonesian version) sent chills down to my spines. Very little do we know about this. Following are some links to the latest info. Is Asian Bird Flu the Next Pandemic?

"Are we scaring people? I don't know," he said. "But rather than springing on people some terrible event, it's better that they get emotionally ready for what they could face. We think a pandemic is coming. Nobody knows when. But it is good to get people prepared before it arrives."

World Unprepared for "Bird Flu" Pandemic, Experts Say

"Vaccines can be effective against some influenza strains, but they currently promise little help in the event of an avian flu pandemic." "[Medical] technology has improved, but the capacity to make vaccines is not great," said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the Bethesda, Maryland-based National Institutes of Health. "We have to be careful we don't assume we have everything that we need—because we don't."

17.9.05

Kekebeletan yang Memiskinkan

Sebenarnya bagaimana sih caranya memastikan dengan tingkat kepercayaan yang cukup bahwa kapasitas produksi minyak mentah pengilangan minyak x adalah y ton barel per hari? Bagaimana kita bisa tahu kapal anu pengangkut minyak mentah membawa z ton barel? Berhubung melibatkan volume yang besar, sistem peneraan volume dalam produksi minyak pasti tidak sesensitif peranti tera pada SBU. Tapi siapa yang mengaudit produksi minyak di negeri ini? Bagaimana kinerja dan kredibilitasnya? Apa pernah kita pertanyakan hal beginian?

Pencurian dan penyelewengan hasil produksi minyak milik rakyat Indonesia, sebagaimana dilaporkan oleh media baru-baru ini re Lawe-Lawe, mustahil baru. Pasti sudah dari dulu. Lagi pula, ini bukan dugaan; ini hasil obrolan saya dengan mantan pejabat di bidang perminyakan. Salah satu harian nasional hari ini menurunkan beberapa tulisan yang intinya senada. Mana ada yang pernah atau mampu menghitung berapa besar kerugian rakyat Indonesia selama ini!

Perlu saya sebut di sini, program penghilangan subsidi BBM memang suatu kebijakan yang perlu didukung. Saya juga mendukung penuh. Namun, penghilangan subsidi ini mesti dilakukan dengan benar dan adil (fair), yaitu setelah pemerintah memaksimalkan efisiensi produksi minyak. Kalau harga BBM dinaikkan Pemerintah secara drastis 50% atau lebih, seperti disebut Nyonya Mulyani dan Tuan Kalla, tanpa pemerintah melakukan sesuatu terhadap hal-hal mendasar di atas, ini sama artinya menganggap bahwa semua hal mendasar di atas mengada-ada. Padahal hal-hal tersebut untuk kepentingan bersama kita sebagai anak bangsa.

Bahwa kompensasi kenaikan BBM secara langsung dari pemerintah kepada orang-orang miskin akan berjalan sesuai harapan adalah suatu asumsi yang sangat mahal! Tapi, taruhlah harapan ini dapat terpenuhi 100%. Kebijakan penaikan harga BBM secara mendadak mendekati harga minyak dunia akan membuktikan diri sebagai satu dari sekian program pemiskinan rakyat. Segelintir orang, akan untung--mis. para penyelundup dan oknum serta aparat yang terlibat. Mayoritas rakyat Indonesia akan "buntung"; kita akan merasakan kemelaratan yang semakin merata.

Kenaikan BBM akan menaikkan hampir semua harga. Inflasi sebagai konsekuensinya adalah keniscayaan, karena hampir semua produk jasa dan konsumsi terkait langsung dengan transportasi. Kapan tekanan inflasi akan mengendur, ini tidak dapat dipastikan, kecuali bahwa tekanan tersebut akan bertahan lebih lama dari 3 bulan (sedangkan program subsidi langsung secara kontan akan diberikan selama 3 bulan). Sementara itu, tingkat bunga perbankan dan non-perbankan akan meningkat dan sumber-sumber pendanaan akan semakin mahal didapat.

Mengapa pemerintah kita tampaknya "kebelet" untuk menaikkan harga BBM tanpa memaksimalkan efisiensi dulu? Ada kepentingan "pasar" dalam hal ini. Hanya sejumlah kecil dari penduduk Indonesia mengetahui, bahwa mulai bulan Nopember nanti Pertamina untuk pertama kalinya akan melepas monopoli penjualan bensin di Indonesia, sehingga konglomerasi penjaja bensin swasta, seperti Shell dan Petronas, akan dapat menjual bensin mereka di pasaran Indonesia. Jadi, kekebeletan ini pasti akan baik untuk kemashalatan mereka, tetapi juga akan sangat mencekik leher rakyat Indonesia.

Tapi apa benar masalahnya sehitam-putih begini? Kok, mudah sekali; padahal ratusan juta penduduk ini terbagi dua antara mereka yang setuju dan tidak setuju dengan penghilangan subsidi.

16.9.05

Good Governance in Indonesia: Principle #1

One cannot afford to be too general when talking about good governance (GG). Given the gargantuan issues in the spectrum, GG can only be dealt with effectively, de- and re-constructed meaningfully under limited designs and confines. In the context of Indonesia, a country so much fiscally strapped when one third of its budget is allocated to debt servicing, GG issues should be more limited and sharply focused if one wants to maintain coherence. Realism should be applied at all times; know that in Indonesia GG means more or less "good enough governance."

Good Governance in Indonesia: Principle #2

Priority is a crucial principle, too. Take for instance the time after the downfall of Soeharto. The government decided to prioritize on salvaging the banking industry. That was one grand mistake. The government should have let the collapsing banks collapse. The money could've been used to reform... the military, for example.

12.9.05

Selamat Tinggal, Tuan Menteri?

Justru SBY sendiri yang di awal kepemimpinannya, November tahun lalu, menyatakan akan mengkaji ulang kinerja para pembantunya. Ketika dicecar para pewarta setelah menyampaikan paket ekonominya di ujung Agustus lalu, ia menjawab akan konsisten dengan kebijakannya. Memang banyak pihak yang menyuarakan desakan serupa, tapi hal tersebut bukan murni menagih janji, melainkan dilatari jatuhnya nilai rupiah hingga mendekati titik nadir krisis Juli 1997, saat 1 dolar mencapai Rp 14 ribuan. Pihak-pihak ini menuntut perombakan kabinet, khususnya para menteri urusan ekonomi.

Akankah SBY melakukan merombak kabinet? Tahan sebentar: apakah perombakan bentuk jawaban terbaik? Menurut saya, kita tidak bisa bilang ya secara definitif. Kita toh tahu, pergantian bukan jaminan yang akan menghasilkan satu atau sederet nama yang cocok. Lagi pula, memangnya banyak tokoh sejati di negeri pertiwi ini? Pergantian menteri hanya akan berefek positif jika kinerja para penggantinya lebih baik dan tidak mendapat resistensi politik. Jadi, ada risiko tersendiri dengan pergantian susunan menteri.

"Mungkin" adalah kata yang tepat, dengan catatan bahwa pilihan perombakan kabinet hanya akan diambil sebagai "kartu truf" terakhir sang Presiden. Sementara, SBY akan menunda keputusan ini sambil menunggu perbaikan kinerja rupiah. Pertimbangannya adalah sbb: pertama, kalau kebijakan perombakan tertempuh, SBY akan melakukannya secara menyeluruh. Demi konsistensi dan tatakrama ketimuran. Strategi menyelamatkan muka masih diperlukan bagi kita, sebagai bangsa yang agak muna. Kedua, yang cukup aman bagi SBY adalah mencopot para menteri yang tidak memiliki dukungan kuat parpol, atau yang bukan hasil penunjukan politis oleh parpol, misalnya saja menteri perdagangan, menteri industri, atau menteri keuangan.

Pertimbangan lain, mengingat bola panas reshuffling dilatari oleh kegagalan kebijakan ekonomi menyangkut nilai rupiah dan kenaikan inflasi, maka sasaran tembak yang tepat adalah melengserkan menteri keuangan. Untuk itu, skenario yang cukup elegan dan berkesan santun begini: menteri tersebut akan diminta secara halus untuk mundur dari jabatan, atas alasan kesehatan.

Jika kita telusuri terus skenario ini, maka pertanyaan berikutnya adalah: siapa yang pas menggantikan menteri Jusuf Anwar? Mantan penyanyi Randi Anwar, atau Syamsul Anwar mantan petinjukah? Ini pertanyann lain. Jawabannya perlu posting tersendiri. Sementara menunggu posting berikutnya, kalau saya masih tertarik menelusurinya, mari pinjam perkataan menteri tersebut tatkala rupiah mendekati ceban tempo hari:

Don't worry; be happy, lah!

11.9.05

A Great Folly

i, for one, used to think that motorists were the blessed ones: they would inherit jakarta roads. they could still ride on faily freely when roads became congested with cars like tins with sardines. now i am seeing things much worse these days. it's becoming more and more real...

go pass my town, ciputat, where traffic jam smirks in front of the big police office. pick any morning, and you'll witness forlorn police officers blow whistles in vain. they don't have the capacity to excercise their simplest duty. the problem was hard enough for them then. it is harder now as it will stand beyond belief, very soon. the police should be among the first to scream about this monstrosity, but do they ever use this line of thinking?

i've posted articles elsewhere in my old blog on how many new cars are adding everyday in indonesia or in this illfated town alone. have had no wonder why people in rich countries are unwilling to buy personal cars. they don't really them; what for? car producing countries blabber on the need to construct more roads, and more freeways. this won't help. more toll roads go in harmony only with their own interest, so that they can export their cars. with our needs for basic needs?

mainstream economists take the growing number of vehicles available within in country as an economic indicator. if anything, it is to be used as an indicator of folly of a government unable to provide basic transport infrastructure to its people.

welfare has been insufficiently measured by gross domestic products. its calculation should take into account how much time one needs to travel from one's home to office and back home again.

does it matter what we drive or what we ride on? one day the city traffic will find us helplessly paralyzed, totally immobilized.

9.9.05

A Country on the Make


IN MEMORIAM: CAK NUR
(Photo credit: http://www.pergerakan-indonesia.org/)

Following are Cak Nur's, or Nurcholish Madjid's, living thoughts on Indonesia as far as I could grasp them, based on a meeting with him on 21 February 2002, Venue: Campus of Paramadina Mulya, Jl. Gatot Subroto Jakarta. It's also an excerpt from Towards a New Indonesia, a book that I compiled in 2002. While part of the plethora of problems Indonesia faces today is believed to have stemmed from its past, insight into its history and sufficient knowledge about what has shaped the country today may contribute in the processes of identifying and solving the problems as well as the nation building. In this part, Nurcholish Madjid presented historical insight into the country, starting off by highlighting the country's relative similarities with and differences from its older brother, Japan.

For over three thousand years, the Japanese culture has been such a continuous phenomenon. It's very amazing: 3ooo years without real interruption, despite the fact that the people borrowed some things from outside from everywhere in the world, for example China, which makes it-although not very unique, very interesting. Indonesia, too, borrowed the Latin alphabet for its language.

But one thing that makes it very sharply different from Indonesia is Japan being a very homogenous country. If it is not strictly speaking, then in term of education, which is just about the same from one end to the other, just like America, which is also the same from end to end. On the contrary, Indonesia still suffers from developmental gap. Some of us here in Jakarta have already gone into what Toffler dubbed as the Third Wave; quite a few Indonesians have already entered the second wave, but most of us still dwell in the third wave, being agrarian, something that had been begun by the Sumerians six thousands years ago!

What may be most striking, there are also those who haven't even arrived at the first wave, still living in pre-Sumerian stage. We were taken by surprise by some of the documentation made by activists who showed how some people were still involved in killing, chopping the head of the victim and eating it. Some used to think these were only things of the past when they were innocent children. But it is still happening in Indonesia.

Which makes it somewhat valid to reflect that one of the passive crimes of Soeharto is that he didn't educate his people, although he had the means to. He could have mobilized teachers or intellectuals.

Indonesia is not a nation. Rather, it's a collection of nations. Aceh is a nation; Batak is just another. Indonesia is just like the USA in a smaller format. Some of the nations within Indonesia are bigger than those in Europe. "Indonesia" itself is not a name. It is a mere anthropological term concocted by the German Adolph Sebastian back in 1864. In those days, the large part if not all of Southeast Asia was still called Java. The Malay language was called Jawi, bahasa Jawi, or tulisan Jawi. Prof. Hamka once speculated, if we had not found word "Indonesia," the republic perhaps would be called "Jawa" today.

A look into the development of the national language would provide interesting and important evidence. Back in 1938, the language of unity was the Malay, not bahasa Indonesia. Both sides of the Malay areas, the peninsula and the Sumatra sides, were centres of activities. The Minangkabau (or west Sumatrans), being one most sophisticated "nations," contributed a great deal to the development of the Malay language. (Through the works of literature and linguistics from their poets and writers-red.)

Indonesia only emerged out of imagination and creative vision of its founding fathers. Bahasa Indonesia, which has developed out of a political decision, has been a very successful example. One can say that (early) Indonesia, in term of "software," was the Sumatrans, but these people had neither power nor experience to govern. In term of "hardware," Indonesia was and is Java, and the Javanese do have both the two elements.

The Javanese are a big people inhabiting a broad area up to Mindanao. They may have a tendency to be imperialistic, as a demarking dichotomy of "the Javanese" and "non-Javanese" reflects. Like it or not, big nations do have such tendencies, e.g. the Chinese who differentiate the "middle kingdom" from "peripheral kingdoms;" the Arabs marked areas of "abode of peace" and "abode of war."; the Romans used such terms as "civilized" against "the barbaric"; also "the West" and " the rest" dichotomy that may remind one to the thoughts of Samuel Huntington and Francis Fukuyama.

Such is also the Javanese mindset. In the shadow puppet play, there exist two groups of people. The characters on the right hand side of the master are the good people--the Javanese themselves, while the ones on the left are always wong sabrang, people from out of Java, who are destined to be dumb and dark and doomed to fail and lose. This pattern still clings until today.

There was, in fact, a scenario of burgeoning Indonesia into a big state, but understandably, the Javanese did not like the idea. Then when the time arrived for Indonesia's founding fathers to decide on how to manage the country, they looked at America. If one studies the writings of Soekarno, they are rampant with ideas and quotations from Alexander Hamilton, Thomas Jefferson, Franklin, Lincoln, and his favorite Franklin de Roosevelt.

It is quite clear that when the Dutch attempted to make a comeback to regain their colonial "right" by joining the British troops, America opposed. Australia was also among the first to support Indonesia's struggle for freedom. In short, we ended up as a republic. As for the cabinet, President Soekarno chose a presidential one, not a parliamentarian, for he considered the latter as a bourgeois democracy.

Soekarno was keen on the idea of pluralism. Following the American example, we then inherited the plurality motto of Bhinneka Tunggal Ika and were also left with the broadly defined national values in a document misnamed later as the Jakarta Charter, where we first learned of "Pancasila." We are left with a garuda bird as our symbol of freedom. But one thing we didn't borrow from America is federalism, and now we're dearly paying for it. The Javanese did not quite like the idea.

It was no accident that the cultural pattern tends to parallel with the Islamic, although things are somewhat intermingling today. Geertz once used the terms "santri" and "abangan," but the abangan today has greatly changed. For example, in 1950 it was impossible for the PNI people (where the PDI-P party fundamentally originates from--red) to say salam or read the Qur'an. Now, it's a common thing.

Much of the tension happening today may have its root in the perception of and against the Javanese. But to liken it to the movement of a pendulum, it is now coming to the middle; one day it may stop right in the middle. Interestingly, today, it is symbolically represented by Pekalongan, an area in the middle of Java. Modern journals in Indonesia, such as Tempo, are established by the Pekalongan people. Most outstanding poets and writers of today's Indonesia also come from this area.

*
Indonesia is taking shape. What's happening now is not it. The new balance will be attained some 20 years from now. The promotion of Gus Dur as president was very symbolical, although unfortunately he was not very productive. But then again, actually the time was not ripe yet. We should wait for about another two decades. One thing is clear, though. Since 1998 we have committed ourselves to democracy, and this is no wishful thinking; it's optimism. When Sukarno said his commitment to democracy, it was mere rhetoric.

Soekarno is the greatest textbook thinker, something that he himself condemned once. In reality, he got confronted by his own personalities; he was a man of many faces. Being a Pekalongan son of priyayi, he grew up in Surabaya, where under the guidance from Cokroaminoto he learned to be a good Moslem. In Bandung he was exposed to and internalized western ideas when studying at the now ITB. Soekarno was overwhelmed by such cultures and ideas as Javanese, Islam, Western, and Socialism and couldn't resolve them within himself. Sometimes he was Javanese, conservative; sometimes he was a fiery man from Surabaya. He once declared "Revolution is to uproot and rebuild." He had the chance to uproot, but never rebuild. To find remnants of western influences upon the man, the presidential palace still stands gracefuly in European glamour.

*
Since 1998 we have experienced something new in the form of freedom of expressions, a novely unthinkable even just one year earlier. To some people who couldn't stand it, it's rather excessive, but are we really to mistake the excesses for the essence? Following a series of harsh criticisms over the performance of his ministers, President Gus Dur panicked and invited the five of us: Akbar, Amin, Alwi, Mega, and myself. We concurred that his ministers did not perform effectively, and it was not about lack of coordination in term of managerial administrative coordination. It was more with vision management. Gus Dur seemed at first interested, but he did nothing about it. Indonesia needs a strong, benevolent and enlightened leader. If we don't see any these days, we have to ensure that such kind of people can emerge to the top. So high is the hope for the next general election.

8.9.05

Blogging: Lesson #101

Current bloggers and wannabes, hark:
Never say never blog. Ever!